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What does 36.7% growth mean?

April 24, 2006 • Business • Larry Benz

p>I received in today’s mail the new Business 2.0 magazine for May.  The title of this well read magazine is “The Next Job Boom” where you get a listing of the 10 hot jobs and the 10 hot cities.  These lists seem to come up around college graduation time in a number of magazines and I am sure that all of you have read various reports. The article spent considerable amount of time about the hot network systems and data communication analyst jobs primarily choosing to focus on the opportunities in IT.  Interestingly enough, physical therapist came in #7 with a 36.7% job growth thru 2014 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

A few observations:
-the article never mentioned anything about PT or the #9 on the list OT.
-what does 36.7% job growth thru 2014 mean?
-How is it determined?  Is attrition taken into account?

I have great respect for the BLS and have used their site from time to time (side note:  never believe any salary data unless it comes from BLS.  Salary surveys are not representative and people lie-something about the BLS and census data where you attest that under penalty of jail that you are telling the truth seams to elicit more truth tellers).  There are way too many factors that determine growth rate and you have to question the authenticity of this type of data.  Let me give you an example that I use in my presentations: How big is the industry of outpatient physical therapy ?  In the last few years, I have had this question researched by the best libraries available, relevant professional associations, and the insurance industry archives (including medicare).  As best that we can tell, it is about an 11 Billion dollar industry that is growing at less than double digits relative to total billings and more than double digits in terms of people accessing services (when the industry goes from an average of around 14 visits per patient to less than 10, the math sort of works).  To put it in perspective, we are about 1/3 as large as the diagnoses of LBP.  In those terms, I am not suprised at the growth rate (law of small numbers).

I am very optomistic about the future and growth of PT but there are some warnings that I wished the article contained:

-we expect to collect about half of what we bill
-we get our money about 70 days on average after we provide the service
-we are regulated as much as banks
-if we entertain our best clients, we are commiting coporate compliance violations and can go to jail
-medicare thru bizarre coding regulations has essentially capped the value or worth of a PT at around $70 per hour (tough for industries to grow with price caps and yes I know there are a lot of cheaters out there that violate 1 to 1 therapy and 8 minute rules and use of support staff BUT nonetheless our fees are still capped by the largest payor).  Furthermore, if economic theory is any indicator (I believe that it is) than these caps will impact the growth of our profession substantially just as they would if their was caps on IT specialties.

Despite these constraints, PT will grow greatly thru 2014 and this growth will be fueled by evidence that proves out our efficacy.  lastly, past history is suggests that people go into our profession for the right reasons-a genuine desire to help people and not because of the articles describing the “hot professions”.

Thoughts?

Larry

Larry Benz

Dr. Larry Benz, DPT, OCS, MBA, MAPP, is the Executive Chairman of Confluent Health. He is nationally recognized for his expertise in private practice physical therapy and occupational medicine. Dr. Benz’s current areas of interest include conducting research and integrating empathy, compassion, and positive psychology interventions within physical therapy. He released a book on September...

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